Blue Origin tests its BE-3 rocket engine. (Credit: Blue Origin)
Artist conception of Boeing CST-100 approaching the ISS. (Credit: Boeing)The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing is likely to be the primary winner of NASA's Commercial Crew contract. This contract, which is worth billions, is being awarded for the final phase of development for a manned spacecraft that can take astronauts to the International Space Station and serve as a replacement for the Space Shuttle. That contract is expected to be awarded this month.
There are currently three contenders for the Commercial Crew contract: Boeing, which is developing a manned capsule currently named the CST-100; SpaceX, whose unmanned version of its Dragon capsule has made several trips to the space station, and Sierra Nevada Corporation, whose winged Dream Chaser spacecraft will be capable of landing on a runway.
According to the WSJ report, a 'growing consensus' of experts in industry and government believe Boeing will win the primary award of the contract, due to a belief that the veteran aerospace company is the 'least risky' option. The report also notes that there is likely to be a smaller award to develop an alternative to Boeing's CST-100, and that award is likely to go to SpaceX.
One thing that may have clinched the deal for Boeing, according to Reuters, is an unexpected assist from Jeff Bezos. According to that report, Bezos' commercial space venture, Blue Origin, will be working with the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance to develop a new rocket engine to replace the currently Russian-built RD-180 engine.
Blue Origin is currently developing what it calls the BE-3 rocket engine for flights of its planned New Shephard space capsule. This liquid hydrogen fueled engine had its first successful full-cycle test in December of last year.
Boeing's CST-100 is designed to be lifted into orbit on a ULA Atlas 5 rocket, which features the RD-180 engine. However, a number of government officials have expressed concerned about ULA's reliance on the Russian engines, particularly because ULA is currently the only launch provider for the military and other government agencies. Earlier this year, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister threatened that the country would halt the export of RD-180 engines to the U.S. However, engine deliveries since have so far continued uninterrupted.
ULA has stated that it currently has a two year supply of the engines, and last week the company announced that it was 'finalizing details' related to the development of a replacement engine 'with a U.S. aerospace partner.' If these reports are correct and the 'partner' referred to is Blue Origin, this may be what tipped the decision in their favor.
For its part, a Boeing company spokesperson told me they weren't aware of any decision having been made by NASA as of yet.
'We have no insight to NASA's decision,' he told me via email. 'We are anxiously awaiting their decision.'
Both Sierra Nevada and SpaceX have announced their intention to continue developing their manned spacecraft in the event that NASA doesn't award them the Commercial Crew contract. For example, Sierra Nevada is currently working with both the Japanese and European space agencies to continue development of Dream Chaser.
SpaceX would face some challenges in developing its Dragon capsule, though. According to one space systems analyst I spoke to, 'developing a new spacecraft is cash-intensive. Without NASA is not clear SpaceX will have the cash. At the very least, it will take longer to develop a human-rated Dragon without NASA's money than it would with.'
However, whether SpaceX has the NASA contract or not doesn't make much of a difference for its commercial business. According to the same analyst, 'Commercial customers are largely attracted by SpaceX's price, not what type of contracts they have with NASA.'
As for Boeing, the company right now hasn't stated its intentions for the CST-100 if it doesn't win the NASA contract. 'We haven't made that decision yet. We would have to take a step back, review the potential business case and go from there,' the spokesperson told me. 'It would be more difficult to close the business case without the NASA foundation business.'
NASA officials stated that the agency would be making a major announcement related to the Commercial Crew program at 4pm EDT today, which is expected to be the official announcement of the contract award.
Follow me on Twitter or Facebook. Read my Forbes blog here. Entities 0 Name: NASA Count: 11 1 Name: Boeing Count: 10 2 Name: SpaceX Count: 7 3 Name: Blue Origin Count: 5 4 Name: ULA Count: 3 5 Name: Sierra Nevada Count: 2 6 Name: U.S. Count: 2 7 Name: Boeing-Lockheed Martin Count: 1 8 Name: Dream Chaser Count: 1 9 Name: Sierra Nevada Corporation Count: 1 10 Name: WSJ Count: 1 11 Name: European Count: 1 12 Name: Reuters Count: 1 13 Name: Bezos Count: 1 14 Name: United Launch Alliance Count: 1 15 Name: Russian Count: 1 16 Name: Jeff Bezos Count: 1 17 Name: Wall Street Journal Count: 1 Related 0 Url: http://ift.tt/1oVK4IZ Title: Boeing appears primed to beat SpaceX for massive NASA space taxi contract Description: Three private companies are vying for multibillion-dollar NASA contracts to shuttle astronauts to and from the International Space Station, replacing America's reliance on Russian shuttles. The contracts, to be announced as early as Tuesday, will probably go primarily to aerospace giant Boeing Corp., not Elon Musk's SpaceX, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing interviews with government and aerospace-industry officials.
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